The Coming World Stock Market & Housing Crash
Reverse Globalisation 2016 - 23
1973 - 79 redux
February 2021 to April 2022: inflation and bubble bursting
Astrological cycle analysts look at the interaction of Saturn and Uranus to judge when this cycle will impact the world economy.
They also look at the cycle of Jupiter and Neptune and their interaction, to see when inflation is going to take off.
Crucially, the exact dates when planets make exact aspects and symbolise particular changes is NOT when that change manifests.
The exact date of the aspect shows that the impacts are already underway and are about to be made obvious and manifest in the world.
That is, causation occurs well before the aspect perfects. Logically. Because the planets run in cycles and the exact aspect is a margin in that cycle.
You might think that the year of greatest Covid impact was mostly 2020, in terms of impact on the world economy. But due to the world’s governments and central banks’ actions in injecting huge sums to prop up their economies, there is a multi-phase reaction to the depressing impact of the economic damage caused by shutdowns.
Broadly this means that the greatest impact will be felt (in terms of economic downturns) about 12 months AFTER the time when a society was in tightest lockdown Each society in turn tries to normalise its first aid packages of Central bank largesse and government fiscal splurges that were designed to stop Covid devastating economies. This is a rolling wave which started with China, moved to Europe and then USA and finally Brazil and India.
So, yes, Chinese economy will show cracks and declining growth first, out of the major economies (starting already, now.)
Each major economic block had its worst CV19 outbreaks at a different time, over period January 2020 - May 2021. Each inflated via spending splurge, had a growth spurt and then each begins reverting to the mean (as in 2019 growth.)
The USA is currently injecting a lot more stimulus which will pump up their growth (& inflation) in late 2021 and the first half of 2022. Meanwhile the EU, Japan, India and Brazil are still in stall speed or worse.
So, USA will postpone its recession til late 2022 at the expense of rocketing inflation, which will in turn lead to bubble bursting declines in real incomes. China, having led world in Cv19 and stimulus to avoid its impacts on economy, is now showing signs of reduced growth. USA will follow in mid 2022.
2016 - 22 echoes 1973-79
Covid & Reverse Globalisation
Broadly, by this I mean that the world is shrinking in its perspective, traveling, and trade deflationary impacts. The trend from about 1992 to 2016 was for continuous expansion and mobility of finance and labour across borders. This lowered the price of most things and led to most Westerners experiencing v low inflation. Goods/finance/labour were mobile in huge quantities, across the world and millions of people travelled wherever they wanted.
2020 was the Saturn return of the Capricorn stellium in 1989, of Saturn, Uranus, Neptune. That corresponded with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the USSR (in 1991) That launched the modern era of globalisation which had a deflationary impact on world prices, other than asset prices (ie wage control) It was also the launch of a more integrated EU, and the Euro in 1999. These forces of change began unravelling in 2016 and 2022-23 is the end of that process, leading to disunity and disorderly break up of trading blocks/ collectivities.
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Trump’s election and the UK decision to leave the EU in 2016, were events that showed the underlying roll back of this cosmopolitan and “diversity” oriented cycle. The world global village of convenience and cheap goods is a declining trend. When it might might return or continue, we currently do not know.
But Covid 19 has dealt it a severe blow and (combined with changes to world political trends in “possibility”) altered the landscape of the world economic system. The eclipses in mutable signs in March and September 2016 ushered in this new era. Neptune hit the March 2016 New Moon eclipse point (18.56 Pisces) in June 2019 and transited it until January 2021. Neptune represents chaos and the virus as well as fears and phobias.
The reversing of long term trends acting to deflate prices (especially Chinese cheap assembly and export of manufactured goods) is a slow process. It gathered pace in Trump’s period in office due to trade war with China and consequent increases in costs of trade. Covid impact on air travel and freight costs gives it extra fuel.
Saturn and Uranus marked the beginning of the coming inflationary crisis, when they squared each other on February 18th 2021. They do this 4 times before Saturn moves out of orb. The next time is June 15th 2021 and the third time is 24th December 2021. The 4th time and the crucial square for market decline, is October 2022. The crisis lasts until more promising planetary sign positions arrive in late 2023.
The last time this happened was in November 2008 and the aspects between the planets went on til May 2010, coinciding of course with the Global Financial Crisis.
This time is different because this time we are completing a longer cycle: - broadly, a credit super-cycle which began about the time of Bretton Woods in 1944. That cycle should have come to an end about the end of 2019 (75 years, or two and a half Saturn cycles.)
But of course Covid 19 came along and lots of splurge defensive spending (borrowing from the future) had to be done. This resulted in huge splurge in spending by governments and Central banks and means a lot more inflation entering the system, from which it had been banished from since around 1987, due to monetarism and globalisation.
Overlaying the action of Saturn and Uranus, we have Jupiter and Neptune. These two have a broadly “inflating” theme and symbolise gaseousness. Which is to say, lots of hot air. Which is what people have been engaged in in respect to their economies.
The two planets also symbolise deception and self-serving delusion. Jupiter rules largesse and Neptune rules the Virus itself.
So what are Jupiter and Neptune doing that is important for inflation (which reduces living standards when it exceeds wage and/or GDP growth?) Jupiter has a brief visit to Pisces starting in mid May 2021 and goes back into Aquarius at the end of July 2021. This symbolises the inflation taking hold. Then Jupiter re-enters Pisces at the end of 2021, by which time inflation will be a dominant force. Posing great problems for Central Banks who cannot control it by raising interest rates, without crucifying home owners with big mortgages.
Then , in 2022 Jupiter shoots through Pisces in 4 months up to April and hits Neptune in Pisces en route. All very inflationary. The inflation will cut consumer spending as it will exceed wage growth. This will in turn hit GDP growth (which at present all the smart banking folk are telling us is going to spurt upwards and rescue us all in the next 12 months - at what cost? And for how long?)
Planetary testaments to instability and crises.
Peak planetary action for crisis is March 2nd to May 18th 2022 and then August 2nd to 27th 2022 Finally, as usual for turbulence in markets, October 2022.
In early March 2022 there is a conjunction of Mars, Venus and Pluto in Capricorn. At the same time, Mercury conjuncts Saturn in Aquarius at 19 degrees. This degree area of 18-20 degrees fixed is triggered again later in 2022, in August.
In April 2022 further turbulence is indicated by Jupiter and Neptune conjunction in Pisces (inflation) In May this is reinforced further by Mars, Jupiter and Neptune coming together in Pisces and Jupiter conjoining Mars in early Aries.
In August 2022 there is the conjunction of North Node, Mars and Uranus at 18 Taurus, squaring the Mercury/Saturn conjunction of early March.
In early October 2022: the coup de grace
Mercury direct squares Mars and opposes Neptune with Jupiter 45 degrees to a Saturn Uranus square , again at 18 degrees of fixed signs This is when most of the percentage fall in world stock markets will occur. 2022 prior to that will bring stuttering shocks and flat lining. 18-19 degrees fixed in Taurus and Scorpio are historical echoes of fixed eclipses in Taurus and Scorpio from 1975. Uranus has already mirrored the 3.11.75 eclipse at 10.29 Scorpio. On April 30th 2022, this eclipse is mirrored at 10.28 Taurus.
1973 - 79: The last great Inflation (until now….)
The oil producing Arab states more than tripled the price of oil leading to 6 years stagflation and two world recessions. Oil is a major component of business costs and domestic heating bills, as well as petrol cost. Oil price rises began in October 1973.
Inflationary forces had been growing in the western economies from around 1966, due to the USA spending on the Vietnam War. This led to a run on USA gold stocks and the USA leaving the Gold Standard in August 1971.
Due to the waning influence of globalisation on inflation, from 2016 onwards, inflation has also been building in the last 5 years. But that has been disguised by government definitional sleights of hand which are designed to make it look lower than it is.
In the 1973-4 period, Jupiter was in Aquarius and then Pisces, as prices continued to rise. Precisely where Jupiter is now and will go on into 2022. In the process (in 1973-4) Jupiter squared Neptune in Sagittarius, the sign Jupiter rules. In June 1973 there was a Full moon eclipse in Sagittarius at 24.35. That was followed by a series of eclipses in Gemini and Sagittarius up to end of 1974.
This eclipse cycle of 18.6 years is currently in Gemini-Sagitarrius, except in reverse. The coming eclipse in June 2021 is triggering the position of Saturn in May 1973. Mars got in on the act in April 2021 by conjunction the same spot at 19 degrees Gemini. This is when commentators started mentioning inflation and trying to talk down its potential seriousness .
Fixed eclipses in Taurus and Scorpio in 2022, overlap those from 1975, showing the mid way point of the crisis which developed between 1973 and 1977. Inflation peaked in some countries above 20%, in 1976-77. Inflation is beginning to take off now and will accelerate in 2022. Inflation and interest rate policy are the centre of the crisis causation, both in 1970s and coming in 2022.
So What?
Stock markets do not like inflation and central banks are meant to control it with interest rate rises. But this time is different: commentators are unanimous that any rise in rates will cause a housing crash. But, inflation exceeding wage rises will also cause a crash, due to falling standard of living.
So, a reset is needed. Uranus is just the tool for that, as it transits Taurus (money sign and that of value.) Housing markets are highly dependent right now on low-interest rates and their booming prices have been built on continual cuts to interest rates since 2011.
When we get 5-8% inflation (not 25% that we got in the 1970s) as I am saying we will in the OECD countries, in the first half of 2022, central Banks will be stuck - they are supposed to raise rates to choke off the inflation.
But they dare not do so because that would cause a housing market price crash
So what is likely is that inflation will exceed wage and GDP growth and we will have a big, long, recession. If we get a lot of defaults on loans (as is likely, as loan payments depend on incomes to pay them, and those incomes will be cut by inflation) then we will get a credit crunch and this is likely to be greater than that of 2008. The world has approximately 40% more debt now than in 2008 so default risk is higher. Interest rates can now only rise, so the long cycle of inflating asset prices by cutting rates is over.
A house price crash and a stock market crash in 2022
Yes, that is exactly what I am predicting.
But things do not “crash” in one day.
Stock markets can be expected to drop 50-65% from current elevated levels and house prices probably about 30% from their current inflated levels. Where: USA, UK, EU, NZ, Australia, China, Japan in respect to stock markets. House price crash will be more localised according to locations that have most inflated prices. One of which is of course, NZ Rate of house price inflation in NZ has already peaked.
The drop in house prices and stock markets will continue until around April 2023, when it will stabilise at much lower levels, with Jupiter in Taurus providing some relief.
In the time period February 2022 - October 2022, we will get rising inflation, higher bond prices, rising costs of finance to banks, small rises in interest rates, defaults and a credit crisis.
All this will reduce confidence and cause asset prices to fall as people have to sell them to meet debt obligations. The impact of these falls will be felt well into 2023 and the economies impacted will be regarded as in recession for most of the second half of 2022 and all of 2023.
Bubbles in the housing market are usually reversed or contained by rising interest rates. Stock markets ones more by economic downturns in profits of Firms listed. This time around, inflation exceeding incomes will lead to an economic drop in GDP and in turn impact markets. Housing market prices will decline because people have bought ahead of the cycle and lack of buyers in next 2 years plus crimping confidence, will reduce borrowing. Saturn and Uranus squared each other from September 1975 up to July 1976, all of which was a tumultuous time for stock and housing markets, with very high rates of inflation. They did so again in 2008-10, for the Global Financial Crisis.
Saturn-Uranus: 2021-25 echoes 1973-77
Uranus is now opposing the position it was in in 1976-77. This is why I expect a broad repeat of the economic circumstances from 1973-77 to occur in 2021 - 2025 Uranus continues to oppose its positions of 44 years earlier and Saturn does likewise. In the 1970s Uranus was in Scorpio and Saturn in Leo. Now Uranus is in Taurus (the sign of finance) and Saturn is in Aquarius. This is a historical echo.
Uranus rules radical change and is transitting through Taurus, the sign of financial security and money. Inequality has been increasing in Western countries since 1975. That has caused a demand deficit which has been filled in with debt. The Uranus-Saturn reversal of position will reverse this process and entail far more government intervention and control.
The Calmer Waters: 2026 onwards
Pluto in Capricorn and Neptune in Pisces suggests the same thing, with Barbault broadly equating Neptune with Socialism and collective feeling. Left and right will be more polarised than at any time since the 1930s but new political movements will be coming through. Youth begins to have more influence and environmentalism finally makes an impact on the power elite’s decision-making. A new era of growth and prosperity with stability and peace should follow from 2026, due to a mass of harmonious sextets and trines in Fire and Air signs.
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